Gold & Silver: How many more records will precious metals break? Expectations and forecasts

The wave of geopolitical headlines at the start of 2026 has improved the outlook for gold and silver, even after the massive rally across all precious metals last year.

Gold and silver are breaking records in the very first days of the new year—gold surpassed $4,600 per ounce for the first time this week, while silver broke above $90. Since the beginning of the year, the two metals have gained more than 6% and 22%, respectively.

On Wall Street, the prevailing view at the start of the year was that gold and silver would once again perform well, albeit not on the scale seen last year. The reasoning lies in strong structural factors supporting demand, including rising purchases by central banks, a weaker U.S. dollar, and a tight supply-demand balance, among others.

The constant flow of news from Washington in recent weeks—from Venezuela and Iran to Greenland, as well as attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve—has further strengthened the case for precious metals. Signs of a more interventionist U.S. policy stance are pushing investors toward safe-haven assets.

„It’s simply about the sheer volume of geopolitical headlines,” said Aakash Doshi, Global Head of Gold and Metals Strategy at State Street. “And this is not just media noise—it may reflect a structural regime shift.“

Global shifts

Historically, geopolitical shocks have rarely had a lasting impact on equity markets—even the recent removal of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro did not significantly shake major indices. (That said, major stock benchmarks have come under pressure this week due to additional political developments surrounding the Donald Trump administration.)

The precious metals market, however, tells a different story. According to strategists, the latest rally represents a tactical response to rising instability in the U.S. and globally.

On Wednesday, Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, Global Head of Equities at UBS Financial Services, said gold could reach $5,000 per ounce in the coming months—and as high as $5,400 under a more optimistic scenario—driven by stronger demand for protection against macroeconomic and geopolitical risks.

She added that gold is the “preferred asset” over oil in the event of an escalation of tensions with Iran that could disrupt oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy transportation. Over the weekend, President Donald Trump urged Iranians to continue protests against the regime, stating that the U.S. was “ready to help.” Reports suggest Trump is considering various courses of action against Iran.

„The oil market has recently struggled to price in a geopolitical risk premium, and we expect it to be somewhat oversupplied in the first half of the year,” Hoffmann-Burchardi wrote. “At this stage, we see gold as the better hedge due to its diversification potential.“

Adding to the uncertainty is Trump’s aggressive rhetoric regarding Greenland. On Wednesday, the president posted on social media that anything short of Greenland becoming part of the United States was “unacceptable.”

A key driver behind the short-term rally in gold and silver is the perception that Trump’s actions in Venezuela—and his willingness to use military force in relation to Greenland and Iran—are prompting investors to fear that the U.S. is shifting its global policy stance toward more active interventionism. This would inevitably influence the foreign policy approaches of other countries.

„If investors previously believed the U.S. would adopt a more non-interventionist stance and focus on domestic issues, it may turn out that the new doctrine allows for a higher risk of intervention,” Doshi noted.

As a result, other countries may begin accumulating their own reserves of oil, gold, and other commodities, according to Marco Papic, Chief Geopolitical Strategist at BCA Access.

Additional risks—such as Trump’s ongoing attacks on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell—could further undermine financial stability.

This week, Citi Research analyst Kenny Hu raised his short-term price targets to $5,000 per ounce for gold and $100 for silver, citing heightened geopolitical risks.

„We expect the bull market to remain intact in the near term amid elevated geopolitical risks (Russia/Ukraine, Iran, Greenland, Venezuela, etc.) and renewed uncertainty around the independence of the Fed,” Hu wrote.