What Мacroeconomic Оutlook Does Goldman Sachs Оutline?

When looking at the major macroeconomic factors shaping our market outlook, we observe:

1. Global GDP at 2.8% (30 basis points above consensus)
2. U.S. GDP at 2.6% (60 basis points above consensus)
3. China’s GDP at 4.8% (30 basis points above consensus)
4. Eurozone GDP at 1.3% (20 basis points above consensus)
5. Continued acceleration in productivity growth, which is favorable for corporate earnings but more uncertain for the labor market
6. Inflation near target in most major economies, with U.S. labor and rent growth already slowing from pre-pandemic levels
7. Another 50 basis points of Fed rate cuts expected without triggering a recession

According to Mark Wilson of Goldman Sachs, this is not a bad mix for the markets. However, with lower liquidity, lighter volumes, and slower news flow, Tony Pasquariello, head of hedge fund coverage at Goldman Sachs, presents several charts to guide investors through the short holiday weeks, showing how we got here and what to expect.

First, on the macroeconomics:

1. The oldest asset of all – gold. The chart may tell a story of fiscal dominance, rising concerns about fiat currencies, or a significant increase in central bank demand. Whatever angle we take, this year has been the best for gold since 1979, with a gain of 68%.

2. Среброто също бележи впечатляващ ръст – 139%, също най-добрият резултат от 1979 г., когато цената му се повиши петкратно.

3. Speaking of assets as a store of value, we compare gold with Bitcoin. Neither of these assets has intrinsic value or yield, so their movements are primarily driven by narratives and flows. While gold continues to be accumulated by speculators and reserve fund managers, Bitcoin is experiencing a period of clear outflows.

4. Metals in general are also having an impressive year. Copper is breaking new highs, and the related stocks are also experiencing a strong rally.

5. As for currencies, opportunities remain limited. I’ve been carefully watching the direction of the dollar since the Global Financial Crisis, and despite several tests, the trend remains stable.

6. The chart of 10-year U.S. Treasury inflation expectations shows stability since 2022. This serves as an indicator of confidence in market expectations, although occasional divergences between the bond and equity markets are observed.

7. It’s interesting to observe how the bond market and the equity market react differently under various economic scenarios. For example, the correlation between 5-year Treasury yields and labor market data remains very tight.

8. At the same time, the equity market is already pricing in a cyclical acceleration that isn’t yet clearly visible in the economic data. This doesn’t mean that one market is “more correct” than the other, but rather that expectations for acceleration in the first half of 2026 are rising.

9. The correlation between open job positions and the S&P could shift in 2025, reflecting a historic change in the relationship between the labor market and the stock market.

The following charts examine international equity markets:

10. European banks have risen 90% this year, continuing a strong trend, although the 2007 peak remains 77% above current levels.

11. Japanese banks are also having a strong year, with a 45% increase. We expect 2026 to be an interesting year for Japan’s financial markets.

12. Chinese stocks are also performing well, and the trend is expected to continue. The index of the 30 largest tech companies listed in Hong Kong reflects the challenges of the local market, despite the country’s technological leadership.

13. The leader among Asian markets this year is South Korea. The KOSPI has risen 74% since the beginning of the year, nearly doubling its levels from “Liberation Day.”

Returning to the U.S.:

14. The 6-month correlation of the S&P shows high market dispersion, which is likely to remain so in the next phase.

15. VVIX (the volatility of volatility) characterizes the course of 2025, being more descriptive than predictive, but it complements the overall market picture.

Major themes:

16. The NDX/RTY ratio indicates that small-cap companies can perform well during cyclical acceleration, but they are not expected to outperform the large technology companies.

17. The hedge fund community also had a strong year, with our long-term index showing a consistent pattern of alpha.

18. The bullish trend of the S&P from the COVID lows continues, despite challenges in capital management. Ultimately, U.S. stocks remain resilient, and the focus now is on balancing risk and return.

According to Scott Rubner from Citadel, the markets are entering 2026 on a solid macroeconomic foundation. Retail investor participation is structurally higher, supported by record household wealth, broader equity participation, and significant cash reserves. Rotations across indices, sectors, and commodities indicate healthier market breadth, while earnings momentum is spreading beyond a narrow group of leaders. Political conditions further support a positive outlook: fiscal stimulus is turning positive, monetary conditions are easing, and political uncertainty is declining. Positions are not overcrowded, with steady retail interest, recovering institutional participation, and favorable seasonal factors in January. The path forward may not be linear, but the conditions for continued growth are in place. With expanding participation, rising earnings, and more accommodative policy, we remain positive on the macroeconomic and market structure for the first quarter of 2026 and beyond.