What’s Moving the Markets Today

U.S. index futures edge higher on Tuesday morning as markets enter a pivotal week marked by Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision. Investors are also digesting new developments around the potential sale of parts or all of Warner Bros Discovery. The White House confirms that Nvidia will be allowed to export its H200 chip to China, while Bitcoin remains under slight pressure.

1. Markets open with moderate optimism
Futures on the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 rise about 0.1% as traders prepare for the Fed decision. The major indices closed lower on Monday amid rising Treasury yields, supported in part by the powerful earthquake near Japan, which boosted demand for higher yields.

Investors are awaiting earnings from Oracle and Broadcom later in the week — key companies in the context of massive AI-related capital spending.

Confluent shares jump following news that IBM will acquire the company, while Tesla drops 3% after a negative outlook from Morgan Stanley.

2. Paramount makes a hostile bid for Warner Bros Discovery
The battle for Warner Bros Discovery is heating up. After Netflix was viewed as the front-runner with a $72 billion offer for the TV and film assets, Paramount-Skydance announced a hostile $108.4 billion bid — a 139% premium to the valuation before negotiations began. The offer includes the entire company, including its cable networks.

Warner’s board says it will review the proposal but is not stepping back from its agreement with Netflix for now.

3. Trump allows Nvidia to export H200 chips to China
The U.S. is giving Nvidia the green light to sell its H200 AI processors in China, with a 25% tariff on sales. This partially eases earlier restrictions, which only allowed exports of the weaker H20 model.

Analysts estimate the H200 is roughly six times more powerful than the H20. It remains unclear whether the change will boost sales given Beijing’s push to reduce reliance on U.S. hardware. Nvidia shares rise in pre-market trading.

4. The Fed begins its two-day meeting
Market attention shifts to the Fed, where a 25-basis-point rate cut is widely expected. The probability stands around 89% according to FedWatch, supported by softer economic data — a cooling labor market, slightly higher spending, and inflation that is stable but still elevated.

However, some Committee members warn that a third consecutive cut may be premature given the limited new macro data caused by the prolonged government shutdown. Analysts call this one of the most contentious meetings in years.

5. Bitcoin pulls back slightly
Bitcoin trades sideways ahead of the Fed decision, with investors avoiding new positions. Expectations for a longer rate-cutting cycle support the view that a weaker dollar and lower yields could boost demand for non-yielding assets like cryptocurrencies.

In 2025, Bitcoin sees extreme volatility, swinging between record highs and sharp corrections, increasing its correlation with risk assets — particularly equities.