What’s Driving the Markets Today

US Index Futures Move Higher

Futures tied to major US indices are climbing as investors prepare for a week packed with risk events, including a series of interest rate decisions from central banks around the world. Attention will also focus on the release of delayed US economic data, postponed due to the extended federal government shutdown. Shares of China Vanke failed to gain enough support from bondholders to delay debt payments, raising renewed concerns about the ongoing property market crisis in the world’s second-largest economy. Reports indicate that SpaceX management has begun selecting Wall Street investment banks to advise on a potential initial public offering (IPO), while oil prices are rising slightly.

1. Futures Move Higher

US stock futures rose on Monday ahead of one of the final trading weeks before investors close their books for 2025.

As of 2:48 a.m. ET (07:48 GMT), Dow Jones futures were up 126 points, or 0.3%, S&P 500 futures rose 14 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures added 28 points, or 0.1%.

Wall Street’s major indices fell at the end of last week, with the S&P 500 retreating from its record closing high on Thursday. The negative sentiment was fueled by weak quarterly results from major AI-related companies, including Oracle and Broadcom, raising questions about the sustainability of huge technology spending.

Investors are also looking for signals on the broader economy, trying to gauge the Fed’s next move after Wednesday’s 25-basis-point rate cut.

2. Delayed US Economic Data

Clarity is expected this week with the release of data delayed by the record-long US government shutdown.

Tuesday will bring the November jobs report, with economists expecting a gain of around 35,000 positions, according to Reuters estimates. Net job data from October, which was not released due to the shutdown, will also be included in the November report.

Additionally, a new unemployment rate will be released after the 43-day shutdown prevented data collection in October.

“If the data comes in weaker than expected, it could accelerate expectations for another Fed rate cut,” analysts at ING said.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November is also expected, a key measure for tracking inflation in the US.

For the Fed, the health of the labor market remains more important than persistent price pressures. Several indicators suggest the US labor market is cooling, although policymakers and markets rely on alternative sources in the absence of official data.

3. China Vanke Shares Fall

China Vanke shares dropped on Monday after the company failed to secure enough support to extend a large bond payment, raising concerns of another debt crisis and losses in the real estate sector.

Vanke shares fell 2.8% in Shenzhen after documents showed that bondholders largely rejected the proposal to extend the payment by one year.

The company now has a five-day grace period to pay 2 billion yuan (around $280 million) or risk default.

In November, Vanke announced it was seeking to extend its obligations, reviving fears of a continuing property market crisis in China. The state-backed company could trigger the largest “domino effect” on the already weakened real estate market, surpassing previous private-sector collapses like Evergrande and Country Garden.

Other Chinese property companies also saw declines. New World Development Co Ltd fell 3% in Hong Kong, while China CITIC Construction dropped 1%.

4. SpaceX Begins Process for Potential IPO

SpaceX management has begun selecting Wall Street investment banks to advise on a potential IPO, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Banks will submit initial proposals in the coming weeks, with the latest estimates valuing SpaceX at over $1 trillion.

Founder and CEO Elon Musk confirmed IPO plans last week. SpaceX is a key provider of space technology to the US government and recently achieved success with its Starlink satellite internet business.

5. Oil Prices Rise

Oil prices are climbing slightly, recovering some losses from last week as traders weigh the possibility of global supply disruptions due to rising tensions between the US and Venezuela, as well as a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.

Brent futures rose 0.2% to $61.24 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures gained 0.3% to $57.39 per barrel.

Both benchmarks fell more than 4% last week, mainly over concerns that global crude supply exceeds consumption growth.