What is Driving the Markets Today?

U.S. stock futures are rising after markets closed mixed in the previous session. Euphoria around artificial intelligence is helping Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp (TSMC) report its highest-ever quarterly profit, while Oracle is expected to present a new financial outlook as the company bets heavily on AI. Meanwhile, gold climbs to a new record.

1. Futures climb

U.S. stock futures are pointing higher on Thursday as investors weigh better-than-expected results from TSMC and ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China.

By 02:51 ET (06:51 GMT), Dow Jones futures rise 58 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 futures climb 12 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures increase 88 points, or 0.4%.

The benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite advance on Wednesday, while the Dow Jones remains slightly lower. The initial rally in equities fades somewhat during the session, despite upbeat reports from European chipmaker ASML and major U.S. banks Bank of America and Morgan Stanley.

Ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions remain in focus. An article in the Wall Street Journal, citing sources close to Chinese leadership, states that Beijing is ready to take a firmer stance in talks with Washington, believing more turmoil could hit markets and force President Trump to the negotiating table.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says equity volatility will not change the Trump administration’s position, though he notes the White House does not want the conflict to escalate. He adds that Trump remains ready to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea later this month.

2. TSMC reports record quarterly profit

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp (TSMC) reports a record quarterly profit, driven by high demand for AI infrastructure.

The company, whose clients include Nvidia and Apple, reports net profit of T$452.30 billion ($14.75 billion) for the three months ending September 30, exceeding the Reuters/LSEG estimate of T$417.7 billion.

Revenue rises 30% to T$989.92 billion ($32.3 billion), with a gross margin of 59.5%. The world’s largest producer of AI chips predicts that euphoria around the technology will continue to grow, expecting revenue in the current quarter to rise by up to 24%. It also confirms planned capital expenditures of up to $42 billion this year, despite potential headwinds from U.S. tariffs and currency fluctuations.

3. Oracle to hold analyst meeting

Oracle will hold a meeting with financial analysts on the final day of its AI-focused conference in Las Vegas.

Analysts at Vital Knowledge expect the company to provide updated financial guidance, with a focus on margins and cash flow, as forecasts for its cloud business for the next four years have already been given.

The company’s two new co-CEOs confirm plans for major investments in data centers to increase computing capacity needed for AI models. On Tuesday, Oracle also announces it will offer cloud services supported by AMD’s upcoming MI450 AI chips.

In September, Oracle shares jumped after announcing an additional $317 billion in contract revenue, largely tied to a deal with OpenAI and ChatGPT.

4. Philly Fed manufacturing index

Traders are monitoring the monthly manufacturing index for the Mid-Atlantic region, as a prolonged U.S. government shutdown delays new economic data.

The index is expected to fall to 8.6 in October from 23.2 the previous month. A positive reading indicates expansion in the sector.

Some Fed policymakers are looking at alternative economic indicators due to the lack of official data. The next interest rate decision is scheduled later this month.

The Fed’s “Beige Book” report shows economic activity remains stable, though signs of rising layoffs and reduced spending by lower- and middle-income households are emerging.

5. Gold hits new record

Gold prices rise to new all-time highs for the fourth consecutive session, as expectations for Fed rate cuts and U.S.-China tensions increase demand for the safe-haven metal.

Spot gold climbs 0.5% to $4,230.48 per ounce, after earlier reaching $4,241.99. U.S. gold futures rise 1.0% to $4,244.71.

The price of gold has increased over 6% in the past week.

Traders are now pricing in a near-certain 25 basis-point Fed rate cut in October, followed by another in December, after Chair Jerome Powell took a more dovish tone. Non-yielding gold typically performs better in low-rate environments.