Updated Key Events to Watch and What Traders Are Focused on Today

Today’s economic calendar directs market attention primarily to Germany’s inflation data, which will provide an important signal for price pressures in the eurozone’s largest economy and the potential next moves by the ECB. Monthly inflation (CPI) for December is expected to remain at 0.0%, following a -0.2% decline in the previous month, while the annual measure is forecasted to slow to 1.8% from 2.3%, confirming the trend of easing inflation. Weaker-than-expected data could strengthen expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy in the eurozone and put pressure on the euro, while unexpectedly higher readings would support yields and overall risk sentiment.

In the United Kingdom, focus will be on the remarks of Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, as well as the monthly NIESR GDP tracker, which is expected to remain in negative territory. Bailey’s comments will be closely watched for signals regarding inflation, interest rate policy, and the state of the UK economy.

From North America, interest centers on Canadian housing starts, as well as statistics on foreign purchases of securities, which could influence the Canadian dollar. In the U.S., the spotlight will be on industrial production for December, both month-over-month and year-over-year, providing insights into the resilience of the real economy at year-end. Additional attention will be paid to comments from Federal Reserve member Michelle Bowman.

Later in the day, inflation data from Russia will be released, along with the traditional Baker Hughes report on active U.S. drilling rigs, which often influences oil price movements. In the late hours, markets will analyze CFTC data on speculative positions in major currencies, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices, gold, and oil, offering a clearer view of the positioning of major market participants.

Overall, the key driver for European markets today remains the German CPI, which could set the tone for euro, bond, and equity movements in the region.

Link to the full calendar here:
https://calendar.varchevbrokers.com/calendar.php?lang=bg

Top 5 Things to Know Before Europe Opens

• Asian stocks are rising to record levels, led by technology companies on renewed optimism around artificial intelligence. Taiwan’s Taiex index leads regional gains after TSMC reached its highest level in history. Taiwan’s strong performance follows a long-awaited trade agreement with the U.S.
• The yen strengthens against the U.S. dollar. Japan’s Finance Minister reiterated that all options – including direct currency intervention – remain on the table to address the yen’s recent weakness.
• Gold and silver are slightly lower, while industrial metals are also down. China has increased oversight of high-frequency trading, leading to declines in copper, zinc, and aluminum both in Shanghai and on the London Metal Exchange.
• President Donald Trump and governors of northeastern U.S. states agreed to push for an emergency wholesale electricity auction, which would require technology companies to fund the construction of new power plants.
• Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs raised $16 billion in the largest investment-grade bond issuance in the history of a Wall Street bank, following strong quarterly results.

European equities are expected to open lower on Friday as investors digest ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Futures for the UK’s FTSE 100 were last down 0.13%, Germany’s DAX fell 0.4%, and France’s CAC declined 0.3%, according to IG Group data.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed the previous session up 0.6%, with most major exchanges and sectors in positive territory.

The index was supported by semiconductor stocks, with Dutch chip equipment manufacturer ASML rising up to 7% following positive TSMC results and closing up 6%. ASM International advanced 11.2%, while BE Semiconductor added 7.3% on Thursday.

Just days after a U.S. District Court judge in Washington, D.C., allowed Orsted to resume work on its nearly completed Revolution Wind project, the same court permitted Equinor to resume activities on the Empire Wind project. At the end of last year, the Trump administration had halted five major offshore wind projects.

European troops arrived in Greenland late Thursday amid Donald Trump’s efforts to acquire or annex the world’s largest island. A White House meeting on Wednesday regarding the future of the Danish territory concluded without a diplomatic breakthrough, though the U.S., Denmark, and Greenland agreed to continue dialogue.

Energy markets have been highly volatile recently as investors assess the consequences of the violent suppression of civil unrest in oil-rich Iran and Washington’s response, including potential tariffs on Iran’s trading partners. March futures for Brent crude fell 3.44% to $63.49 per barrel.

Silver and gold saw strong gains as investors sought safe-haven assets amid concerns over Federal Reserve independence. However, March silver and February gold futures were last trading down 1.91% and 0.28%, respectively.

Forex options expiring today

There are only a few levels worth noting today, highlighted in bold below.

The first is EUR/USD at 1.1600. While not the largest option expiry today, it is still a relatively sizable level. This could keep the price “pinned” around this round figure during the upcoming session. However, an expansion of the daily range could push the price toward a test of the 200-day moving average at 1.1582, so this scenario warrants attention.

A break below the key technical level above could open the path for a stronger decline toward 1.1500, with sellers continuing to dominate the short-term outlook for the currency pair.

Next, there is an expiry for USD/JPY at 158.00. The pair is already showing a change in short-term trend, but the option expiries may help limit downside movement, at least during European morning trading.

Nevertheless, news-related risks remain paramount. Any additional verbal interventions or “verbal pressure” from Japanese authorities could quickly trigger sharp price swings, which remain the dominant factor for price action at this stage.

Looking ahead to next week, there is almost nothing notable on the option expiry board. This serves as a reminder that the U.S. will have a long weekend in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day. U.S. markets will be closed, which explains the low interest in option expiries for the day.

Still, there is a very large expiry for EUR/USD at 1.1500, which deserves attention, especially in the context of the key levels mentioned above.