Updated: Morning Оverview of Upcoming Events and What to Expect

Today’s economic calendar is extremely busy and promises significant market volatility. Starting in the morning, important events kick off in Europe – ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak several times throughout the day, which could strongly move the euro. This is followed by various PMI data for services and composite indices in France, Germany, and the Eurozone, with most expected around or above 50, indicating a stable services sector. The UK will also release its PMI data, expected to show a slight slowdown, while in the evening a Bank of England official will give a speech, which could also impact the pound.

In the afternoon, attention shifts to the U.S., where the ADP employment report is first to be released, expected to show minimal job growth. Shortly after, import and export price data and industrial production figures will follow. Then come the PMI indicators for services and the U.S. composite index, with a key highlight being the ISM Non-Manufacturing report — an important barometer for the U.S. economy, along with sub-indices for employment and prices. At the same time, data on construction spending will be released. Later in the afternoon, the oil market will react to crude inventory data, which often triggers sharp movements. The day ends with a statement from President Donald Trump, which could further influence currency and stock markets.

Overall, the day is packed with central bank speeches, key PMI indicators, employment data, and events with strong potential for market movements. Markets are likely to be nervous and volatile, especially for EUR, GBP, USD, and oil.

Link to the full calendar:
https://calendar.varchevbrokers.com/calendar.php?lang=bg

Top 5 things to know before European markets open:

1. Bitcoin continues to rise and is now trading above $93,000. U.S. and European stock futures are also slightly higher, while Asian markets remain stable, with Hong Kong lagging behind. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is slightly weaker.
2. The UK and Japan are responding to investor demand for increased short-term funding. The UK has reduced long-term bond issuance to record lows this year, while Japan is increasing short-term debt issuance after a sharp drop in long-term bond prices. Government bond yields in Japan and Australia are rising on Wednesday.
3. President Trump stated he plans to announce his choice for a new Fed Chair in early 2026, hinting on Tuesday that National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett could be his nominee. Meanwhile, JPMorgan warns that U.S. yields may rise, as markets have priced in too many rate cuts.
4. The Kremlin reported that Vladimir Putin held “very productive” talks with U.S. representatives Steve Whitcoff and Jared Kushner, but the countries failed to agree on a plan to end the war in Ukraine. At the same time, the EU has reached an agreement to phase out Russian gas faster than initially planned.
5. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is reallocating internal resources to accelerate improvements to ChatGPT, according to sources. Marvell Technology rose in late trading after assuring investors that its custom chip design unit is receiving repeat orders.

Forex options expiring today:
There are no significant currency market options expiring today; the full list is shown above.

Traders will therefore have few factors to rely on during the upcoming session, aside from waiting for the U.S. private sector employment data (ADP), which will be released later today. Market sentiment remains calm following yesterday’s more stable session on Wall Street, contributing to a more subdued tone in European trading.

No significant volatility is expected among major currencies, with the dollar remaining slightly weaker compared to yesterday.

However, tomorrow sees much larger option expiries, with the most important being for EUR/USD in the 1.1550–1.1675 range. Caution is advised, as these expiries can have a stronger impact on the currency pair’s movement.

European markets are expected to open in positive territory on Wednesday as global markets trend higher.

According to IG data, forecasts are:

• UK FTSE to open at +0.11%
• German DAX at +0.16%
• French CAC 40 at +0.14%
• Italian FTSE MIB at +0.18%

The positive start for Europe comes after the rebound of major U.S. indices on Tuesday and gains in Asia-Pacific markets overnight, following a weaker start to the week.

Wall Street rose on Tuesday as tech stocks like Nvidia advanced and Bitcoin recovered — a day after its heaviest drop since March.

Investors are weighing the chances of a year-end rally, as historically December is a strong month for U.S. equities, while November was weak due to profit-taking in highly valued companies.

U.S. traders remain optimistic about corporate earnings and are awaiting the Federal Reserve’s decision on December 10. Markets are pricing in around an 89% chance of a rate cut, a much higher probability than mid-November, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

In Europe, financial results from Inditex are expected, and on the macroeconomic front, PMI data will be released.