Updated: Morning Оverview of Upcoming Events and What to Expect

During the day, the United Kingdom is expected to release its S&P Global Construction PMI for November, with market forecasts pointing to around 44.5 compared to the previous 44.1. Later on, Bank of England MPC member Mann will deliver remarks. In the afternoon, the United States will announce its initial and continuing jobless claims, with expectations for 219,000 initial claims and 1.96 million continuing claims.

Canada is set to publish its September trade balance, following a previous deficit of 6.32 billion. Slightly later, the U.S. will release factory orders for September, where a 1.4% increase is expected. Canada will also publish the November Ivey PMI, projected at 53.6 versus the prior 52.4.

Throughout the day, several European Central Bank officials, including Lane and de Guindos, are scheduled to speak. Afterwards, the Atlanta Fed will update its GDPNow model for the fourth quarter, with the forecast remaining at 3.9%. In the evening, FOMC member Bowman will deliver comments, and toward the end of the day, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet report will be released.

Link to the full calendar:
https://calendar.varchevbrokers.com/calendar.php?lang=bg

Top 5 Things to Know Before Europe Opens

• Japan’s 30-year government bonds climbed after an auction drew the strongest demand since 2019. In Australia, bond yields rose to their highest level of the year on expectations that the RBA may resume rate hikes to curb inflation.
• Japanese equities outperformed the region, while U.S. equity futures trade steady and European contracts move higher. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index ticked up slightly after its weakest day since September.
• Asian currencies weakened against the U.S. dollar. In China, the central bank set the daily yuan fixing significantly weaker than expected — a sign it aims to limit the currency’s appreciation.
• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said he is unsure whether China would accept the company’s H200 AI chips even if U.S. export restrictions are eased. Salesforce issued a strong revenue outlook. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley is considering reducing its exposure to data centers through a significant-risk transfer. The European Commission is preparing a new antitrust probe into Meta over AI features in WhatsApp, according to the Financial Times.
• Advisers and allies of Donald Trump are discussing the possibility that Scott Bessent could serve as chief economic adviser in the White House — alongside his current role — should Kevin Hassett be appointed as the next Fed Chair.

Forex Options Expiring Today

There are several notable option expiries to watch today, with the most important ones highlighted below.

For EUR/USD, large expiries are clustered between 1.1600 and 1.1700, with the most significant concentration around 1.1650. This is likely to keep price action contained within the current range, especially as the softer U.S. dollar this week continues to support the pair. However, the larger option expiries may limit volatility at least until they roll off later in the day.

For USD/JPY, a notable expiry sits around 155.70. This level is close to the 100-hour moving average at 155.67, which may cap upside movement in the upcoming session. Even so, the pair remains under pressure following yesterday’s trading, weighed down by the weaker dollar and renewed expectations that the BOJ may raise rates this month.

European Markets Expected to Open Higher on Thursday

Futures for the FTSE 100 are up 0.3%, DAX futures are higher by 0.6%, and CAC 40 futures are also up 0.6%, according to IG Group.

Markets closed slightly higher on Wednesday, with fashion retailers showing the most pronounced moves in the pan-European Stoxx 600 index. Inditex — the owner of Zara — led the index after reporting strong results for the first nine months of the year, ending the session up 10%, while Hugo Boss fell by the same amount after cutting its outlook.

Volvo Cars reported a 10% year-on-year drop in November sales on Wednesday. The company sold 60,244 vehicles during the month, with growth seen only in fully electric models. Chief commercial officer Erik Severinson called this “encouraging,” despite sales in the U.S. remaining “weak” following the removal of EV tax incentives.

Meanwhile, peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia continue. Ukrainian National Security Council head Rustem Umerov is expected to meet U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff in Miami on Thursday. This follows unsuccessful talks between Russia and the U.S. earlier in the week.

French President Emmanuel Macron is in Beijing for a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, where he is expected to urge China to take a more active role in resolving the conflict in Ukraine. His visit comes after the EU’s latest attempt to use frozen Russian assets as a form of “loan for reparations” to Ukraine — an idea that had previously faced resistance.

In currency markets, the euro reached a seven-week high against the dollar on Wednesday, touching 1.167, as the dollar continues to weaken despite some stabilization in the second half of the year.

Several data releases are scheduled for today, including the European HCOB Construction PMI, U.K. retail sales figures, and U.K. car sales numbers.

Markets across the Asia-Pacific region moved higher on Thursday as global investors await the Federal Reserve’s December 10 decision. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate cut stands around 89%, significantly higher than levels seen in mid-November.

In the United States, equity futures were little changed on Wednesday evening. Dow Jones futures added 65 points (0.14%), the S&P 500 held just above flat, and Nasdaq 100 futures dipped by less than 0.1%.