Updated: Morning Overview of the Upcoming Events and What to Expect

Today’s economic calendar begins before noon with speeches from leading European central bankers. At 12:45, the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, delivers remarks, followed shortly after at 12:55 by a speech from ECB President Christine Lagarde. Markets will watch closely for any signals regarding the future path of monetary policy in Europe.

In the afternoon, attention partially shifts to the United States, where at 15:30 the Employment Cost Index for the third quarter will be released. The data provides insight into wage-driven inflationary pressure and can influence interest rate expectations.

At 16:45, the focus moves to the Bank of Canada, which will publish its interest rate decision along with an official statement. At 17:30, the bank will hold its press conference. The Canadian dollar typically reacts to any surprises in the central bank’s tone.

Later in the afternoon, also at 17:30, the weekly U.S. crude oil inventories data will be published, including figures from the Cushing storage hub—an important indicator for crude oil prices and the broader energy sector.

The main event of the day arrives in the evening.

At 21:00, the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, with markets expecting a level around 3.75%. At the same time, the FOMC statement and economic projections will be released, including the interest rate outlook for the coming years. These projections are crucial for shaping investor expectations regarding future monetary policy.

Additionally, the U.S. budget balance will be published, offering context on the country’s fiscal position.

At 21:30, the Federal Reserve press conference will take place, where Chair Jerome Powell will explain the decision and answer questions. His tone—whether cautious or more supportive—will likely set the direction for the dollar, equities, and bonds for the rest of the session.

Late in the evening, at 23:45, New Zealand will release data on electronic card spending, providing an early indication of consumer activity in November.

Link to the full calendar here:
https://calendar.varchevbrokers.com/calendar.php?lang=bg

Top 5 things to know before European markets open

• Australian bonds extend Tuesday’s sell-off, while U.S. Treasuries trade mostly steady ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Stocks in mainland China fall after consumer prices in the country rebound.
• The French National Assembly has passed the social security bill for next year, avoiding a potential government crisis. The approval of the bill increases the likelihood that lawmakers will also adopt a new state budget by the end of the year.
• SpaceX is moving forward with plans for an initial public offering (IPO) aimed at raising well over $30 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. The Elon Musk–led company is targeting a valuation of around $1.5 trillion for the entire business.
• Marianne Lake of JPMorgan says the bank expects to spend $105 billion next year — a forecast that exceeds analysts’ expectations. The bank’s shares fell in New York on Tuesday.
• Amazon.com has committed to invest $35 billion in India over the next five years, ramping up spending in the key growth market. The U.S. e-commerce giant plans investments in areas such as artificial intelligence and logistics infrastructure.

European stocks are expected to open in negative territory on Wednesday, as global investors brace for the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

The UK’s FTSE is expected to open down 0.34%, Germany’s DAX down 0.24%, France’s CAC 40 down 0.25%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB down 0.3%, according to IG data.

Global markets are awaiting the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s final meeting of the year on Wednesday.

The central bank is widely expected to deliver a third consecutive 25-basis-point rate cut, with fed funds futures showing an 87.6% probability of a reduction, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

However, sentiment among members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) remains divided. Some support a rate cut to prevent further weakening of the labor market, while others argue that another reduction could fuel inflation.

Investors are looking to gauge the Fed’s stance from the post-meeting statement and the highly anticipated press conference with Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday afternoon.

European market sentiment is also likely under pressure due to criticism from U.S. President Donald Trump toward European leaders this week. In an interview with Politico published Tuesday, he described them as “weak.”

Trump’s relationships with European leaders are mixed — he maintains good ties with some, such as UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, while others remain strained. In the interview, he criticized a “crumbling” Europe for failing to control migration or take decisive action on the war in Ukraine.

“I don’t think they know what they’re doing,” Trump said, adding: “Europe doesn’t know what it’s doing.”

The comments come at a sensitive moment, as European allies try to ensure the continent’s voice is heard in peace proposal discussions for Ukraine. They also follow Trump’s new national security strategy released last week, which questions whether European nations can “remain reliable allies.”

On Wednesday, markets also expect earnings from TUI, as well as the release of industrial production data from Italy.

For the key currency pairs for tomorrow, the following high-volume option expirations are observed, which could influence market movements:

EUR/USD

• 1.1800 (EUR 2.13 bn)
• 1.1750 (EUR 1.20 bn)
• 1.1580 (EUR 1.70 bn)
• 1.1500 (EUR 3.10 bn)

USD/JPY

• 156.00 (US$ 888.40 m)

GBP/USD

• 1.3460 (GBP 547.69 m)
• 1.3300 (GBP 539.66 m)
• 1.3230 (GBP 468.71 m)
• 1.3150 (GBP 386.57 m)

USD/CHF

• 0.8100 (US$ 373.54 m)
• 0.7925 (US$ 375.00 m)

USD/CAD

• 1.4200 (US$ 568.23 m)
• 1.3550 (US$ 622.00 m)

AUD/USD

• 0.6800 (AUD 785.29 m)
• 0.6700 (AUD 450.27 m)
• 0.6600 (AUD 860.15 m)
• 0.6520 (AUD 860.93 m)

NZD/USD

• 0.5700 (NZD 557.89 m)

EUR/GBP

• 0.8700 (EUR 568.07 m)

These levels indicate areas with high option activity and can act as support or resistance in the short term. Traders closely watch these points for risk management and potential bounce movements in the currency markets.