This Stock Could Rise Nearly 50%, according to Piper Sandler

Piper Sandler is becoming increasingly optimistic about Oscar Health after examining the company’s performance in the Miami-Dade region — its largest county — to gain insight into what 2026 is bringing and will likely bring.

The investment firm is upgrading the health-tech provider from neutral to overweight. Analyst Jessica Tassan is also raising her price target to $25 from $13, implying potential upside of 49%.

With the enhanced advance premium tax credits set to expire at the end of this year, Oscar Health expects both its market share and margins to continue expanding year over year.

“If the enhanced advance premium tax credits (E-APTCs) expire at the end of 2025, Oscar Health believes that enrollment in the Individual ACA Marketplace will decline by 20% to 30% in 2026. This would mean a drop of about 6.1 million people — from roughly 24.3 million in 2025 to around 18.2 million in 2026,” Tassan wrote. “The projection reflects the combined impact of expiring tax credits and strengthened federal efforts to improve program integrity and prevent abuse.”

The company is already pricing in this unfavorable scenario and is designing its 2026 products to operate effectively in a more challenging environment.

Oscar continues to launch, improve and expand health services targeted at specific conditions — such as the HelloMenu program for women in menopause. According to Tassan, these products reduce underwriting risk, boost member engagement and lead to better clinical outcomes.

“Oscar’s 2026 product portfolio is structured to support retention and recapture margins. Most Oscar members will be able to transition to a similar plan at a different metal tier (bronze/silver/gold) in 2026,” the analyst added. “This ensures continuity of care, maintains coverage and offsets part of the increased premium burden.”

Meanwhile, Tassan also highlights the company’s new bonus program, which rewards insurance brokers and agents for higher volumes of new sales during November for plans starting on January 1.

“November is typically the slowest month of the open enrollment period, when brokers and agents have the most time for consultations,” she noted. “We believe Oscar’s new compensation model will pull more sales into November and ensure more deliberate and informed plan selection for 2026.”

Shares of Oscar Health have risen 24% year-to-date.