Andrew Hall’s oil prediction from 2003

Back in 2003, when oil was trading at $30 barrel and the economy had just recovered from the dot-com crash, Andrew Hall wagered that prices would top $100 per barrel within five years.

When oil prices blew past $100 five years later in 2008, Hall’s employer Citigroup made a bundle and Hall took home $100 million as a part of his compensation for this and other successful trades.

According to Time Magazine, Hall structured the contracts so that if oil prices didn’t hit $100 within 5 years, they would expire worthless.

Therefore, it took a tremendous amount of conviction and probably some brilliant analysis on Hall’s part to make that trade.

Traders know it’s hard enough to predict the direction of an asset and find a good entry point. What Hall did was actually pinpoint a timeframe and price level of the move.

Hall is known for doing these brilliant (but risky) types of trades. In 2009, for example, he thought spot oil was cheap. However, oil futures were expensive, so he couldn’t buy them. Instead, he actually bought 1 million barrels of real oil and physically stored it.

So while Hall’s calls weren’t about monumental events in history, he makes up for it by his brilliance and creativity.