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AUD collapsed: here’s why and what to expect next

Changing the RBA to a more neutral tone is currently the news of the evening and it has caused more than 1% decline in AUD / USD as we enter the European session. The couple kept standing close to the bottom of the day, as vendors regained short-term control over the market and are now threatening to redeploy.

The price moves close to 50 MA per day chart and if it is successfully dug and tested, the pair may fall below the bottom of January 24 and 25 around 0.7075-85 before approaching the support of 0.7000.

I do not think that the central bank will suddenly become passive and will stop tightening monetary policy, but these news generally exclude any chance of raising interest rates this year.

RBA is considered a bank that likes to keep interest rates stable (at least last year) and I do not expect this to change dramatically unless the economy itself succumbs, despite the concerns, of course, observed in household and housing debts.


 Trader Aleksandar Kumanov

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