For Traders from Club iNSIDER: Here are Wall Street’s Favorite Stocks as Black Friday Approaches

Wall Street believes that this year’s holiday-season retail winners may include Amazon, Walmart, TJX Companies and Burlington.

In a note published Monday, a team of Goldman Sachs analysts led by Brooke Roach summarized the results of a survey of 1,000 US consumers about their shopping plans for the upcoming season. Roach reports that all signs point to a “more moderate” spending environment this year, with a smaller share of consumers planning to spend the same or more on holiday purchases compared with 2024.

“Optimism is increasingly concentrated among higher-income consumers, while we’re seeing a relative slowdown among low- and middle-income households. Our survey also showed signs of value-seeking — prices are perceived as higher, promotions are more important, and shopping behavior is being shaped more by strategies for cheaper alternatives,” Roach wrote.
“Overall, this suggests a still healthy, though less enthusiastic, backdrop for the holiday season.”

This year, both online stores and discount channels remain the primary shopping destinations for the vast majority of consumers, Roach wrote. However, both channels lost a small share as more consumers say they will not shop at all.

Goldman Sachs sees Amazon as the top shopping destination this year, followed by Walmart. Amazon has underperformed this year, rising only 2.7%, while Walmart has gained 16% over the same period.

Goldman Sachs notes that other potential winners include off-price retailers.

“Given a moderately quieter backdrop for holiday shopping, we believe that retailers offering strong value or great fashion will gain market share. Our stock recommendations in this segment include Buy-rated WMT and FIVE, Buy-rated BURL/TJX/ROST, as well as Buy-rated AMZN,” the bank said.

Doug Anmuth of JPMorgan shares this view, naming Amazon as his top idea for the holiday season. He forecasts that the e-commerce giant may benefit as US online holiday sales are expected to grow by around 7%. Anmuth also praised Amazon’s broad assortment and competitive pricing.

“Amazon maintains a leading US e-commerce share of around 46% (for all of 2024) and enters the holiday season with strong momentum from early holiday promotions, fast SD1D delivery, lower fulfillment costs, advertising, the Prime ecosystem, and competitive prices,” he added.
“Given mixed consumer sentiment, we expect large retailers and online platforms to use discounts and promotions to stimulate holiday demand despite tariff and minimum-spend hurdles, with Amazon continuing to offer competitive pricing.”

UBS analyst Jay Sole expects a lackluster end to the holiday season, citing declining consumer willingness to spend due to concerns about the labor market, inflation, and the macroeconomic environment. He notes that US consumer confidence weakened in November across all demographic groups.

In the current spending environment, Sole believes that off-price retailers such as TJX and Burlington will perform well.

“We see nearly ideal conditions for off-price retailers to gain significant market share. US consumers have the financial resources for strong growth. However, worries about the future are likely pushing them to find ways to save money. Therefore, we expect consumers to find the value proposition of off-price retailers particularly attractive this holiday season,” he wrote.

TJX shares have surged 24% in 2025, while Burlington Stores is up just 1.7% over the same period.

Wall Street is now looking ahead to the first big wave of spending this week, driven by the upcoming Black Friday.