EU Morning Session: A Green Start for Europe Despite Tariff Uncertainty

European indices rose on Tuesday, breaking a three-day losing streak as investors focused on the potential for a global trade war ahead of next week’s deadline for US tariffs. Shell Plc’s shares increased by 1.6% after the company announced plans to boost returns to investors by the end of the decade, solidifying its position as the world’s largest trader of liquefied natural gas. Deutsche Bank AG, Banco Santander SA, and UniCredit SpA also gained after JPMorgan analysts raised their target prices for these banks. The UK’s FTSE 100 rose by 0.4% ahead of the government’s spring statement on Wednesday. In recent days, European stocks have given back some of their strong three-month outperformance against US indices due to concerns over escalating trade war tariffs.

Politicians are rushing to offer concessions and other protective measures in response to requests from the White House in the last week before Trump’s announced “Trade Liberation Day” on April 2. European Union trade chief Maroš Šefčovič will meet with US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo and US Trade Representative Katherine Tai on Tuesday. Over the next month, the focus will shift to the corporate earnings season. According to a Citigroup Inc. index, upgrades by analysts this year in Europe significantly outweigh downgrades. “While the rally pauses, we expect momentum in revisions of earnings per share (EPS) in Europe to come to the forefront, especially since yields are likely to remain stable or rise with increasing leverage both in Europe and the US,” commented Panmure Liberum’s strategist. Among sectors, Susana Cruz recommended banks, insurance, construction, and industrial companies.

What we are watching in European M&A today:

Deal News

• NTGY SM: Taqa from UAE is said to have made a proposal to Criteria for a deal with Naturgy.
• ANIM IM, BAMI IM: Caltagirone will accept Banco BPM’s offer for Anima.
• BAMI IM, UCG IM: Italy extends the review of the UniCredit-BPM deal until the end of April – Messaggero.
• ITH LN: Ithaca Energy signs agreement to acquire Japex UK for $193 million (Enterprise Value).
• WHR LN: Blackstone Europe makes final offer for Warehouse REIT at 115p per share.
• SENX LN: Serinus shares rise in London after takeover offer from Xtellus.
• HEIT LN, DRX LN: Drax offers 88p per share in cash for Harmony Energy Income Trust.
• PVN IM: Piovan to be delisted after Automation Systems’ offer; 98.91% of share capital reached.

IPO/Placements/Buybacks/Share News

• The CEO of HSBC expects an increased presence in Asia and the Middle East after exits from other regions.
• THG offers debt refinancing with a new equity contribution.
• Offering price for THG shares is set at 32.30p per share.
• Endesa agrees to sell its stake in EGPE Solar-2 to Masdar for €184 million.
• Kirkbi and Lightrock participate in €240 million round for medical application Amboss.
• Novo Banco will pay €224.6 million in dividends related to 2024.
• Roquette seeks buyer for Sethness business – L’Informé.
• Enel to sell stake in Spanish solar assets for €184 million.

Events

• Ex-div: EFG International.
• AGM: Neste, Roche, Naturgy.
• EGM: Renault.
• Trading suspension: Hargreaves Lansdown.
• Financial Results/Updates: TAG Immobilien, Bellway, Deutsche Wohnen, Exclusive Networks, Smiths Group, Fevertree.
• Capital Markets Day: Shell.