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EUR in a recovery mode, but vulnerable | Technical levels

EUR / USD: EUR is vulnerable, the focus is 1.1120.

After the disappointing NFP data on Friday, the EUR recovered a small part of the sharp downturn after the ECB meeting. The recovery will rather form consolidation, as the pair is currently in a resistance area of ​​about 1.1250. While the price remains below 1.1290, short positions remain more logical, with only a break above these levels turning the negative sentiment toward the EUR. We are expecting US retail sales data today /11.03/ and CPI data also this week, which may again give a boost to the US dollar. Traders focus on 1.1120 and even 1.10 slightly longer term.

GBP / USD: GBP is under pressure but nears strong support at 1.2870.

The uncertainty of the forthcoming vote tomorrow /12.03/ will hold the GBP under pressure but we should not forget the zone 1.2970 – 1.30, where there are 200 and 50 SMA and diagonal support. Reversing the price above 1.3120 may give hope for appreciation of the pound and a probable test at the highs from February 27 to a price of 1.3351. We remain cautious about purchases, but the levels are too low for new sales. Probably there will be profit takings and consolidation in this zone between 1.2950 and 1.3050.

AUD / USD: AUD Ready for Break below 0.6970.

The AUDUSD technical formation remains negative, and short positions can be found in any decent adjustment. The negative sentiment for AUD is also backed by recent stock market outlets and uncertainty surrounding the US deal, which has already begun to become quite banal. However, the technique suggests a probable breakthrough in the underlying stakes under 0.6970 and the traders look to the next technical level of 0.6920 where there may be winnings from short positions according to DeMark levels.

NZD / USD: NZD will continue the fight, 0.6720 will likely be in serious support.

Nothing important here, but the last bullish bar is swallowing and we can expect the price to stick to the support. Consolidation is also more likely here, as a break above 0.6840 may lead to a relaxation in the pair, and this may lead to a new short-term increase. We remain cautious as better data than US Retail Sales and CPI expectations can lead to a new USD appreciation and a new downward momentum, respectively.

USD / JPY: Probable Level Test 110.40. The negative sentiment of stock markets is getting worse.

Expectations last week to keep the bullish scenario are still preserved, but surprising negative NFP data and stock market downturn have hampered a lot of traders. However, before there is a large tight closed bar below 200SMA, we remain bullish here as well, expecting positive USD data over the week, and the more likely scenario investors will buy after the stock market correction.


 Trader Nikolay Georgiev


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