For Club Traders: USD/CHF: With a printed 9 at key levels, with the potential for a trend reversal point.

Fundamental analysis
– Interest differential in favor of the USD and when smoothed with an inflation factor.
– USD + 5.5% int.rate; -3.7% infl. rate. / CHF +1.75% int.rate; -1.70% infl.rate.
– Swap markets give more than 35% for another hike by the Fed in December, while with SNB the probability is below 10% /support for USD/
– Economic growth in the USA is 2.4% on an annual basis, while in Switzerland it is 0.5%, which suggests a significantly greater possibility of retaining the hawkish policies in the USA, which is a long term support for the USD.

Technical analysis

– The long-term trend is still Short, but with the first signs of a reversal in the trend, as the cross left the short trend channel, forming an accelerated corrective bullish.
– The DeMarker Oscillator breaks through the oversold boundary, as a hold in the territory will accelerate the sell pressure.
– Sequential is with a printed 9 – showing a fully executed bullish impulse
– The price reaches key levels /23.6FIBO of the main Short trend, coinciding with 38.2FIBO of the corrective bullish – impulse, right on the support line of the long trend channel /
– The price section hints at weakened sell pressure and the potential to form a reversal point from current levels.

Weekly bank expectations
The weekly bank consensus suggests a wide trading range between the 0.8880 and 0.9093 levels, with the current price in the upper half of the range, indicating the persistence of the bullish charge.

Banking expectations for Q4
The current three-month bank consensus suggests an even wider trading range with a balance point of 0.91, a lower limit of 0.87 and an upper limit of 0.94, giving an edge to the long potential and supporting the development of the bullish scenario.

In conclusion
The trend is still short, but the technique shows us strongly exhausted sell pressure and a significant improvement in Buy side attitudes. Aggressive traders can take an early long position, with the SL zone placed below the 50FIBO (0.8899) and 65MA (0.8903) according to the size of the margin account, in order to avoid unwanted tregging.

ALTERNATIVELY:
A break and close below the 0.8890 levels (below 65MA and 23.6FIBO) spoils the bullish scenario and the short trend remains in force.