Here are Art’s thoughts on what’s in store for 2019.

On the Federal Reserve and rates:
“I think perhaps the Fed will not hike ever again in 2019. … If you go back and look at what I said both in our interview and with you time and time again, I have been a bear on yields. I think that the Fed — is somewhat misreading what’s going on. Yields are not going much higher and — there’s an outside chance that they cut before the end of 2019.”

On stocks: expect a bumpier ride
“I think it will be very volatile, and — for the first half — probably flat to down as the Fed and others grapple with what they want to do.”

Brexit will happen, but the ramifications have still not been felt:
“Time is running out. They’re going to have to make a decision in late spring. I think Brexit will be forced upon them and it will not be comfortable. I think people will be surprised at how disruptive it is.”

On tariffs: more or fewer tariffs?
“I think they may walk back from the tariffs that are threatened, but I think the global economy may shrink somewhat. It’s already begun to shrink. China’s seeing it — its exports go down, but perversely, not with America yet. That’s to come. It — the — the exports are going down with Europe. So the global economy is slowing. 2019 is going to be somewhat of a difficult year.”

On whether we make a long term deal to settle the trade war with China:
“I don’t believe so. I think we will get something that approximates it, and you’ll get perhaps in midyear a relaxation rally, but — with — with the problems of — political sequencing, whatever, I don’t think it works out.”

On global growth: Do we have any clarity on the extent of the slowdown?
“That will be difficult to find, and — and if anything I would think, and I’m not an economist, that instead of 3 percent or better growth, you’re probably going to get way back to 1.5 percent or 1.7 percent, and — and things will slow down.”

On whether President Trump will be a help or a hindrance to the markets in 2019:
“He will be a bit of a problem in the first half and he will bend over backwards to try to be a big help to it in the second half. Whether that’s effective or not, I don’t know.”

Source: CNBC