What’s Moving the Markets Today

U.S. equity futures are subdued at the start of the week. Alongside an upcoming Federal Reserve interest-rate decision and a busy slate of corporate earnings, Wall Street is also watching a new tariff threat from President Donald Trump, as well as the fallout from protests in Minnesota. Against this backdrop, gold jumped to a fresh record.

1. Futures Are Subdued

U.S. equity futures are trading slightly below flat on Monday as investors brace for a busy week that includes a Federal Reserve rate decision and a wave of corporate earnings.

As of 03:00 ET (08:00 GMT), Dow Jones futures were unchanged, S&P 500 futures were down 4 points (0.1%), and Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 30 points (0.1%).

Major Wall Street indices ended Friday mixed, though all three—the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite—posted weekly losses.

Negative sentiment was driven in part by disappointing guidance from Intel, whose investors include Nvidia and the U.S. government. Analysts are closely watching whether companies tied to artificial intelligence can translate massive investments in the technology into tangible profits.

Still, there is some hope that the geopolitical tensions that rattled equities last week are beginning to ease. Traders are also assessing data suggesting that the U.S. economy remains resilient, albeit largely supported by high-income households and corporations.

2. Federal Reserve Decision Approaches, Speculation Over Powell’s Successor

Attention is turning to the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting this week, which will conclude with an interest-rate decision on Wednesday.

Rates are expected to remain steady in the 3.5%–3.75% range, following a series of cuts late last year aimed at supporting a cooling labor market.

Despite repeated calls from President Trump for aggressive easing, analysts cite strong growth, moderate unemployment, and elevated equity valuations as reasons for the Fed to hold rates steady this month.

Trump’s dispute with Fed Chair Jerome Powell—raising concerns about the central bank’s independence—also remains in focus. Earlier this month, Powell said the Department of Justice had launched an investigation into him, a move the long-serving Fed chief described as politically motivated.

Powell is due to step down in May, though it is unclear whether he will remain on the rate-setting board. Trump has hinted that he has a single candidate in mind to replace Powell. Prediction markets currently point to BlackRock’s Rick Rieder as the frontrunner, ahead of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh.

“The focus will be on the president’s nominee for the next Fed chair, upcoming data, and whether that person will be able to persuade other committee members to pursue further rate cuts,” analysts at ING said.

3. Trump Threatens Canada With Tariffs

As one tariff threat fades, another emerges—at least in the early days of Trump’s second term.

After backing away from plans to impose punitive tariffs on several European countries, Trump said over the weekend that he would impose a 100% tariff on Canada if it strikes a trade deal with China.

Trump warned that Prime Minister Mark Carney could put Canada at risk by reaching a new agreement with Beijing.

“China will completely swallow Canada, including its business and social structure,” Trump wrote, adding that all Canadian goods imported into the U.S. would face a 100% tariff if such a deal goes ahead.

Carney responded that Canada has no intention of pursuing a deal with China and will honor its commitments under the separate agreement with the U.S. and Mexico.

“We don’t think investors should seriously worry about an actual 100% tariff being implemented, but the fact that Trump continues with these impulsive threats is gradually undermining confidence,” analysts at Vital Knowledge commented.

4. U.S. Government Shutdown Risk Rises After Minnesota Shooting

Speculation about another U.S. government shutdown has resurfaced following the death of a person in Minnesota during clashes between protesters and federal immigration officers.

Many Democratic senators had been prepared to avoid a shutdown after last year’s record 43-day closure, but the shooting by a Border Patrol agent shifted their stance.

Senators now say they will not support funding for Border Patrol and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and are demanding greater oversight of the agency’s actions. Republicans hold a majority in the Senate, but not enough to pass legislation without some Democratic support.

5. Gold Rally Continues

Gold pushed above $5,100 per ounce on Monday, extending the rapid rally from last week as investors flocked to the safe-haven asset amid geopolitical uncertainty.

The metal gained more than 8% last week, repeatedly breaking record highs. Since the start of the year, gold is now up nearly 17%, fueled by a combination of geopolitical risks, expectations of looser U.S. monetary policy in 2026, and steady demand from central banks.