Morgan Stanley expects a further decline in AUD / USD

MS remains with the sword attitude towards the Australian, expecting further deterioration in consumer confidence, while the property market continues to show signs of cracking.

They are based on a mix of geopolitical risks in Asia and the lower NAB Business Conditions indicator. The decline was due to the marked decline in corporate profits and worsening trade conditions. The decline in business confidence is accompanied by eroded consumer confidence.

They expect the Australian to continue its weakening against the dollar because of the remarks made by the National Bank of Australia, Ian Harper, that he rather believes that interest will rise rather than fall. However, markets are currently assessing a 70% chance of cutting interest rates over the next 12 months.

For the moment, the price is in lateral motion after recovering from flash crash on 02.01 between 0.70734 and 0.72335. Eventual price movements of up to 200 periodic moving and top trend lines would result in a good short-term entry signal that would trigger a new wave of currency pair sales. For the time being, only the price is trying to keep the periodic moving average on a daily chart.