Positioning and volumes before Nvidia’s report

Nvidia Stock Rally Lacks Strong Volume – Could Earnings Be a Catalyst?

The more than 50% increase in Nvidia’s stock price from its intraday lows in April so far hasn’t been accompanied by particularly high trading volume — suggesting that some investors may be missing the rally. The company’s earnings report, set to be released after the market close, could pull sidelined capital back into the market.

This pattern contrasts directly with last year, when the price momentum was matched by high volumes. The average daily volume since the beginning of 2024 stands at 349 million shares, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. So far this month, only one trading day has seen volume exceed 300 million shares.

As of Tuesday, 5,079 active funds held Nvidia shares, down from 6,325 earlier in 2024, according to Morningstar Direct. While there are warnings of a potentially “chaotic” quarter — due to the possibility that current expectations may not fully reflect the Trump administration’s restrictions on H20 chip sales to China — encouraging guidance from the company could prompt investors to reassess their positions.

Traders will be closely watching Nvidia Corp.’s financial results after the market closes on Wednesday, with options pricing implying a 6.3% move following the AI giant’s report.

The implied move is lower than what was expected ahead of the February and November earnings, and trails the average realized swing of 8.5% over the past two years.

Open Interest by Strike for May 30 Options (Nvidia)

Positioning in short-term option contracts indicates gamma zones that could potentially accelerate post-market trading moves. The highest open interest near the current market level for the Friday expiration is at the $140 strike, with over 105,000 open contracts.

Looking a bit further, across all expirations up to June 20, the $130 strike shows the most interest — with nearly 302,000 contracts, closely followed by the $140 and $135 strikes.