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Short dollar positions are becoming dangerous: is the market underestimating the upside risk?

Dollar – Double Bottom?

The downward trend remains intact, but is a double bottom forming? A close above 100 could open room for a dynamic upward move. The 50-day moving average stands at 101.

Dollar Chart - Potential Double Bottom

Hedge Funds Hate It

Short positions in the dollar by hedge funds remain significant…

Dollar Short Positions - Hedge Funds

DXY Risk Reversals

Many investors are paying a premium for downside protection in DXY. The chart shows the 3-month risk reversal for DXY.

DXY 3-Month Risk Reversal

Will the Dollar Surprise the Crowd?

Short positions in the dollar are numerous, but the gap between Citi’s U.S. Economic Surprise Index and the dollar is widening in the short term. Will the dollar surprise recent shorts?

Dollar vs. Economic Surprise Index

Dollar vs. Bonds

The gap between the DXY index and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains notable.

Dollar vs 10-Year Yield

You Need Dollars to Buy U.S. Stocks

Nothing new here, but worth reiterating — the gap between DXY and the S&P 500 remains significant.

DXY vs. S&P 500

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