The Evening Post to the Boss

Alphabet’s Renewed Rally Leads the U.S. Stock Market Higher

GOOG – The fundamental support from Gemini 3 remains intact, with no signs of momentum exhaustion. The upward trend continues toward the $330 level per share, with further extension of the move as the DeMark oscillator enters overbought territory. A bullish gap toward the ATH, supported by rising volumes and positive sentiment.

After Friday’s rebound, the U.S. stock market is climbing again today, kicking off a shortened trading week due to the Thanksgiving holiday.

Stocks continue to rise on growing hopes that the Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark interest rate again at its December meeting — a move that could stimulate the economy and boost asset prices.

After dropping to just a 20% probability at the end of last week, the options market is once again pricing in a higher likelihood of a rate cut — up to 74% — at the Federal Reserve’s December 10 meeting.

To solidify the rebound, the market is leaning on the strength of stocks swept up in the artificial-intelligence frenzy. In recent weeks, equities have swung sharply in both directions — not only intraday, but hour by hour — as uncertainty dominates over what exactly the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates and whether too much money is flowing into AI, potentially creating a bubble. This cloud of uncertainty is the biggest challenge for investors since the selloff in April, when President Donald Trump shocked the world with his “Liberation Day” tariffs.

The S&P 500 is on track to close a strong trading session near the 50-MA resistance and the horizontal barrier. The DeMarker oscillator exiting oversold territory is supporting the momentum, and during the Asian session the move has the potential to extend toward the diagonal resistance of the corrective structure around 6750/70. The initial test of this zone will likely trigger a rebound before a retest of the 6680/6700 area.

Nasdaq – the key zone to watch during the Asian session is the 25,100/50 levels.

Wall Street is likely to remain volatile in the short term due to concerns surrounding AI-related investments, the Federal Reserve, and some consumer uncertainty. However, strong corporate earnings, ongoing innovation in artificial intelligence, and holiday-season spending will help “set the stage” for favorable conditions toward the end of the year.

Several more tests lie ahead for the market this week, though none as impactful as Nvidia’s earnings report last week or the U.S. government’s September jobs report.

One of the biggest tests will come tomorrow, when the U.S. government releases data showing how severe September’s producer price inflation (PPI) was. Traders expect inflation to rise by 2.6% year over year, matching August’s level. A higher-than-expected reading could discourage the Federal Reserve from cutting its key interest rate in December for a third time this year, as lower rates may worsen inflation. Some Fed officials have already opposed a December cut, partly because inflation stubbornly remains above their 2% target.

U.S. markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving. A day later comes the peak of Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

EURUSD continues to trade within a range ahead of the inflation data, which could strengthen the dollar. Overnight, the pair will likely remain confined within the narrow 1.1520/50 band.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin extended its sharp swings. It is holding near $88,600 after fluctuating between $82,000 and $94,000 over the past week.

After forming a potential rebound with upward price action, Bitcoin is testing the key horizontal resistance around $89K. Holding above this level could unlock further upside potential toward the diagonal resistance near $93.5K. The DeMarker oscillator highlights an area of significant exhaustion in the downtrend, which traders are using for aggressive buying following the oversold conditions.

GOLD – is forming a rebound in the direction of the main uptrend. The movement is heading north to test the dense sell-order zone around 4177. Overcoming this zone would provide momentum for a breakout from the triangle formation, continuing the trend’s development.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumped 2%, marking one of the largest moves in an index at the moment. It was boosted by a 4.7% surge in Alibaba, which reported strong demand for its updated Qwen AI app. Alibaba is set to release its earnings on Tuesday.

A test of strong resistance is occurring at 25,700; a breakout above this level during the Asian trading session could push prices toward 26,200.