The Main Events Today

The main highlights include the Eurozone CPI, U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Trump’s talks with Canada and Mexico. The current market focus is on tariffs, so despite having several key economic indicators today, the market may completely ignore them. During the European session, the Eurozone CPI and the final PMI data will be released. In the U.S. session, the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the Fed’s SLOOS report will be published, but the main attention will be on Trump’s talks with Canada and Mexico, even though he stated that not much is expected.

12:00 EET – Initial Eurozone CPI for January
The Eurozone CPI on an annual basis is expected to be 2.4% compared to the previous 2.4%, while the Core CPI (Core CPI) on an annual basis is projected at 2.6% compared to the previous 2.7%.

The inflation data for France and Germany, published on Friday, showed further slowing, which strengthened market expectations for an ECB rate cut. The market currently expects at least three additional rate cuts by the end of the year, and these expectations may intensify if Trump takes aggressive action regarding tariffs.

17:00 EET – ISM Manufacturing PMI for January (U.S.)
The ISM Manufacturing PMI for the U.S. is expected to be 49.8 compared to the previous 49.3. Expectations are rising after the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI re-entered the expansion zone, accompanied by an optimistic comment from the agency. According to them, “American companies are starting 2025 with a positive sentiment, hoping that the new administration will contribute to stronger economic growth.” The greatest optimism is observed in the manufacturing sector, where growth expectations for the next year are increasing significantly, as factories expect support from Trump’s new policies. However, a positive outlook is also observed in the services sector at the beginning of 2025.

Central bank speakers:
19:30 EET – Raphael Bostic (Fed, non-voting, hawkish)