The releases that will move the markets today

During the European session, there are not many events on the calendar, except for a few lower-quality economic releases. As usual, the main dynamics will occur during the American session, when we will receive data on U.S. retail sales, import prices, industrial production, and capacity utilization.

15:30 – U.S. Retail Sales for January
The monthly retail sales figure for the U.S. is expected to be -0.1% compared to the previous 0.4%, while the ex-auto figure is forecasted at 0.3%, down from 0.4% previously. The focus will be on the control group index, which is expected at 0.3%, down from 0.7% before.

Consumer spending remains stable, which is expected given the positive growth in real wages and a resilient labor market. However, recently, we have observed some weakening in consumer confidence, which may lead to slower spending.

If the data shows weakening, it wouldn’t necessarily be a cause for concern, but it could further reduce inflation worries and maintain market expectations for around two interest rate cuts in 2025.

22:00 – Fed’s Logan Speech (Neutral – Non-voting member)