Trader’s calendar today

Market Outlook – Focus on Flash PMIs and Key Policy Signals

During the European session, attention will be on the preliminary PMI data, as the market looks to assess how business confidence has shifted following recent developments on the trade front, and what the forward outlook suggests.

In the U.S. session, the key data releases include weekly jobless claims and the U.S. Flash PMIs. Jobless claims are likely to be largely ignored, as the labor market remains stable and is not currently viewed as a source of concern. Only a sharp spike above 260K in initial claims could prompt a reassessment of economic expectations.

However, the U.S. Flash PMI figures will be more important, providing insight into whether there is a strong rebound in economic activity—or expectations for one in the coming months—and what the data suggest about inflationary trends.

Currently, markets are pricing in 51 basis points of Fed policy easing for 2025, with the first rate cut expected in September. From this point forward, incoming data will be crucial in shaping those expectations and could therefore impact asset prices across markets.

Today, the U.S. House of Representatives may also vote on the so-called “big, beautiful bill”. If passed, this could raise inflation concerns, potentially driving up long-term bond yields.

Central Bank Speakers Today:

• 10:15 – Breeden (Bank of England)
• 11:30 – Hauser (Reserve Bank of Australia)
• 15:00 – Dhingra (Bank of England)
• 15:30 – Pill (Bank of England)
• 21:00 – Williams (Federal Reserve)