US Session: US Мarkets are Еxpected to Оpen Unchanged ahead of Today’s Fed Meeting

Here are five key things investors need to know before the start of the US trading day:

1. Setting Expectations

The countdown to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision this afternoon and the subsequent press conference by Chairman Jerome Powell is in full swing. Despite widespread expectations of a rate cut, traders are not rushing to take positions in stocks ahead of the event.

Key points to know:

• Fed funds futures price in almost a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point cut, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
• Many expect a so-called “hawkish cut,” where the Fed signals that this could be the last reduction for some time.
• A CNBC survey of Fed watchers shows that 87% expect a cut today, but only 45% think it is justified. Only 35% predict another cut in January.
• Still, the Russell 2000 reached record highs yesterday as investors bet on future monetary easing, typically favorable for smaller companies.
• Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones fell, with the Dow dragged down by JPMorgan Chase shares after the bank announced higher-than-expected expenses for next year. Both indices are down for the week.
• CNBC’s Steve Liesman reported that President Donald Trump will begin final interviews for the next Fed Chair this week, starting with former Governor Kevin Warsh.

2. Oracle’s Prophecy

Once Powell concludes his press conference, investors won’t have to wait long for the next potential market catalyst. Oracle is set to report its second-quarter results after the market closes, and the pressure is high.

As CNBC’s Seema Modi notes, the tech giant must prove it can continue funding its ambitious infrastructure plans. Oracle has established itself as a leader in artificial intelligence in recent months, so the company needs to defend its AI-driven growth story.

Oracle shares are largely unchanged in pre-market trading. The stock has risen over 30% year-to-date, despite its largest one-month drop in more than two decades in October.

3. Pharmaceutical Sector Bets

Major pharmaceutical companies are spending heavily on obesity drugs.

Eli Lilly announced yesterday that it will invest $6 billion to build a manufacturing facility in Huntsville, Alabama, to support production of its experimental obesity pill and other medications. This is the third such facility under its plan to expand domestic production in the US.

Pfizer announced a licensing deal worth $2.1 billion with China’s YaoPharma to develop and commercialize its own obesity pill. This is another effort by Pfizer to establish itself in the weight-loss market, following last month’s acquisition of Metsera.

4. Resuming Payments

Millions of student loan borrowers, whose payments were temporarily paused, may soon be required to resume them. The US Department of Education announced that a proposed agreement will require participants in the SAVE (Saving on a Valuable Education) plan to choose a new repayment method.

New data shows that 42% of student borrowers are struggling to cover basic expenses like food and housing due to monthly payments. More than half say their debt makes it difficult to save for retirement.

5. Target or “Tarzhay”?

Target is trying to position itself as a leader in style and fashion—and is doing so in one of New York’s trendiest neighborhoods.

The company renovated its Soho store, adding rotating collections, a beauty bar, and celebrity- and influencer-curated displays. New CEO Michael Fiddelke called the location a “punctuation mark” for Target’s stylistic identity and future direction as it seeks to win back discretionary-spending consumers.

According to CNBC’s Melissa Repko, the first-floor renovation took four months, with Target rushing to reopen the store in time for the holiday season.

US Stock Futures Move Sideways Ahead of Fed Decision

US stock futures are moving without significant change on Wednesday as markets await the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

Dow Jones futures trade near neutral levels, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts also remain directionless.

In recent sessions, the market has fluctuated between small gains and losses as investors prepare for this week’s key Fed meeting, which is also the last of the year. Expectations are for a third consecutive 25-basis-point rate cut. CME FedWatch data shows roughly a 90% probability of such a move.

However, sentiment among Federal Open Market Committee members remains divided. Some support another cut to prevent further labor market weakness, while others worry an additional cut could increase inflationary pressure. Investors will look for Fed signals in the official statement and Chairman Powell’s press conference later today.

The previous trading session was rather muted. The S&P 500 closed down 0.1%, while the Dow Jones lost nearly 0.4%, weighed down by declines in JPMorgan shares. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose about 0.1%, supported by gains in Broadcom, Tesla, and Alphabet.

Against this backdrop, a rotation between sectors is emerging. The Russell 2000 index, which tracks small-cap companies, reached a new intraday record on Tuesday, supported by the prospect of upcoming rate cuts. Smaller companies usually benefit more from such an environment, as their financing costs are more closely tied to market rates, potentially improving profit margins.

According to Doug Beets, global equity strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, the Russell 2000 has lagged the S&P 500 for the year but has posted strong gains since November 21, outperforming the broader market since then.

He notes that the positive performance among small-cap companies signals expanding market participation. He emphasizes that investors are increasingly looking beyond the current economic slowdown and betting on accelerated growth into 2026, supported by existing long-term trends such as tax relief, deregulation, additional Fed rate cuts, and continued growth in technology investment.