US Session: Futures Brace for a Negative Start Ahead of Key Data Releases This Week

Five Key Things Investors Need to Know at the Start of U.S. Trading:

1. Trouble in the Tech Sector
   After last week’s losses and with Nvidia’s key report approaching, investors are wondering where AI-driven trading will head. Will the sector that has dominated Wall Street and Silicon Valley in recent years lead the market again, or is more volatility ahead?

Key points:

• The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.5% last week, while other major indices saw slight gains. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is on track to end its seven-month winning streak.
• Some startup founders worry that fears of an AI bubble may be justified.
• Large investors, however, continue to believe that the market should reward AI stocks as mega-companies sign multi-billion-dollar deals.
• All eyes are on Nvidia’s report, which will be released after the market closes on Wednesday.
• CEO Jensen Huang recently stated that the company has “half a trillion dollars in chip orders” for 2025–2026, suggesting that next year’s revenues could be significantly higher than expected.

2. The “Kugler” Case
   Months after the mysterious resignation of former Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler, an ethics report revealed that she violated the central bank’s stock trading rules.

The U.S. Office of Government Ethics found that Kugler purchased individual stocks instead of mutual funds and traded during “blackout periods” around Fed meetings—both prohibited practices. She resigned after Fed Chair Jerome Powell declined to grant her an exemption for a disclosure that included prohibited positions, sources told CNBC.

Additionally, the Financial Times reported that New York Fed President John Williams met last week with Wall Street dealers to discuss the permanent repo facility—a tool that acts as a liquidity “backstop” for the markets.

3. What Hedge Funds Are Buying
   Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway revealed on Friday that it opened a new position in Alphabet during Q3. The Google parent company is now the tenth-largest holding in Berkshire’s portfolio as of the end of September. Alphabet shares jumped nearly 5% in premarket trading this morning.

Other funds also disclosed new positions:

• David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital bet on a heavily discounted California electric vehicle company.
• Dan Sunheim’s D1 Capital acquired several AI-related stocks.

4. Air Traffic Congestion
   The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) announced last night that it is lifting mandatory flight restrictions at 40 major airports, effective this morning. Over 5 million passengers were affected by canceled or delayed flights during the government shutdown, when a shortage of air traffic controllers forced the FAA to limit traffic.

Although the government is back in operation, the ongoing shortage of air traffic controllers remains a problem. According to CNBC’s Leslie Josephs, the disruption could make staffing even harder. Airlines are urging lawmakers to ensure that controllers and other airport employees are paid even in the event of another government shutdown.

5. New Paths for Jeep
   After six consecutive years of declining domestic sales, Jeep is aiming for a comeback following management issues, a weak product lineup, and high prices that have deterred customers.

According to Michael Wayland of CNBC, the brand is starting to see early signs of recovery:

• Last quarter was its strongest in over two years in terms of sales.
• The company is introducing new models, including the refreshed Grand Wagoneer.

Meanwhile, Ford officially opened its new 2.1-million-square-foot complex in Dearborn, Michigan, replacing the old “Glass House” headquarters. It features a test track, a two-story indoor courtyard, and even $6 roasted chickens.

Stock Futures Fall Ahead of Key Events
Stock futures are down on Monday as Wall Street braces for a series of key events, including Nvidia’s report and the September jobs report.

S&P 500 futures are down 0.2%, Nasdaq-100 futures have fallen 0.3%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 94 points, or 0.2%.

In premarket trading, Alphabet is up over 3% after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway announced it is taking a stake in Google and YouTube’s parent company.

Meanwhile, Nvidia is down over 1% in premarket trading as the market awaits its Q3 results, which are set to be released after the close on Wednesday. Nvidia and other AI-related names are putting pressure on the market as investors become more cautious due to stretched valuations.

“An excellent report with higher guidance from Nvidia won’t surprise anyone, but it could increase concerns about seemingly endless AI budgets,” says Dennis Fulmer, Chief Investment Officer at Montis Financial.

Investors are also focusing on Thursday, when the September nonfarm payroll report—the first report after the government shutdown blackout—will be released.

“An unexpectedly strong or weak September jobs number will influence expectations for a December rate cut, as the FOMC remains deeply divided on next steps,” Fulmer said. “It’s increasingly likely the Fed will pause in December to allow more time to analyze the next batch of economic data.”

Nasdaq Composite ended the week down 0.5%, dragged lower by Alphabet, Amazon, Broadcom, and Meta Platforms, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 posted modest gains despite heightened pressure at the end of the week.