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US Session: Negative sentiment – Wall Street starts lower.

Negative sentiment for today’s state session. Drops in Europe and increased sell pressure in pre-market trading on Wall Street set a negative tone for the start of the session.
-The cooling of the sentiment is largely due to the statement of Neil Kashkari from the Fed, who does not rule out the possibility of an increase in interest rates in the US.
-This significantly reduced risk appetite among traders, supporting the dollar and bond yields, and putting even more emphasis on the upcoming PCE release /Friday 15:30/. The PCE index is the Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation, and its results will be of crucial importance to traders in determining interest rate expectations.

Before the Wall Street open, futures traded lower as:
SP 500 is down 0.77%
Nasdaq down 0.93%
Dow down 0.74%
Russell 2000 down 1.56%

The strong rise in the VIX today also reflects the shift in sentiment and the shift to Defensive trading in today’s session.

There are no major releases today to catalyze a shift in sentiment, and Wall Street traders will be watching for:
-8:45 p.m. – Statement by Williams /FED/
-9:00 p.m. – US Beige Book

THE TECHNICAL PICTURE AT SP500
-DeMarker Oscillator with overbought rejection
-Sequential in descending printing
-A break below 5,300 sends the trade to last week’s lows.

SPX-Daily

In conclusion: I expect in the first hours of the session there will be a retest of the break around $5,300 – a rejection of which will increase the sell pressure directing the trade to the 23.6FIBO levels during today’s and tomorrow’s session.
Alternatively: A bounce back from current levels and a close of the daily candle above $5,300 will leave the trade in a tight range between the 5,330 and 5,270 levels.


 Head Dealer Alexander Alexandrov

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