US Session: Futures Set for a Positive Start on Softer ADP Employment Data

Five key things investors will be watching at the start of the U.S. trading session:

1. Spending continues
Macy’s reported stronger-than-expected third-quarter results, marking its best growth in more than three years. However, the stock is down more than 6% in premarket trading as the retailer remains cautious about the current quarter and warns about pressure on consumer spending and tariff effects.

S&P 500 traders are also watching the strong earnings report from American Eagle Outfitters — shares are up 12% after a better-than-expected performance and an optimistic outlook for the fourth quarter. The company says that ad campaigns featuring Sydney Sweeney and NFL star Travis Kelce are drawing more customers, though they are not yet a major driver of revenue.

According to the National Retail Federation, more than 202 million Americans shopped between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday — the highest number since record-keeping began.

2. Hiring or layoffs?
President Donald Trump argues that tariffs will bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S., but corporate leaders and economists warn the opposite may happen.

A survey by the Institute for Supply Management shows that some companies are already cutting staff and offering severance packages. One respondent said supply-chain uncertainty is “even worse than during the pandemic.”

Investors now await the ADP private-sector employment report, which is expected to show roughly 40,000 jobs added in November.

3. Pressure on OpenAI
Rising competition from Alphabet and Anthropic is creating a “code red” situation at OpenAI. According to media reports, Sam Altman is urging the team to focus on improving ChatGPT, while Google is drawing attention with its Gemini 3 model, which outperforms industry benchmarks.

Meanwhile, Anthropic is preparing for one of the largest IPOs of the year. On the stock market, Alphabet and Broadcom have rallied in recent weeks, while OpenAI-related names such as Nvidia and Microsoft have pulled back.

4. Roadblocks in media mergers
Local TV station operators are pushing for consolidation, but regulatory and corporate obstacles are slowing progress. Nexstar is trying to acquire Tegna, while Sinclair has launched a hostile bid for E.W. Scripps.

Analysts say the challenges range from complex family ownership structures to outdated regulations that restrict deal-making in the sector.

5. Boeing takes off again
Boeing investors finally have a reason to be optimistic. The stock jumped more than 10% — its strongest day since April — after CFO Brian West said the company expects higher deliveries of the 737 and 787 models in 2026.

The anticipated certification of the 737-10 next year and increased production are expected to be a “major driver” for cash flow. Boeing hasn’t posted a yearly profit since 2018, so the news is viewed as a significant sign of recovery.

U.S. futures are rising on Wednesday as markets weigh the economic outlook and Bitcoin continues its rebound after the sharp sell-off in recent weeks.

Dow Jones futures are up about 94 points, or 0.2%. S&P 500 futures are up 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures are higher by 0.2%.

ADP reported an unexpected loss of 32,000 private-sector jobs in November, versus expectations for a gain of 40,000. Despite the weak signal, traders are betting that declining employment could tilt the Federal Reserve toward a rate cut at its final meeting of the year next week.

Major indexes rose on Tuesday, supported by tech giants such as Nvidia and by Bitcoin’s recovery after its worst day since March. Today, the leading cryptocurrency is trading above $93,000.

In premarket trading, Marvell Technology shares are up more than 10% after the company issued strong growth forecasts for its data-center business. American Eagle Outfitters is also up more than 13% after raising its full-year outlook and reporting a strong start to the holiday season.

Investors are assessing the chances of a year-end rally, as December is traditionally a strong month for U.S. equities, while November brought pressure from profit-taking after gains in major names.

Analysts expect the artificial-intelligence sector to continue delivering strong results. According to Wells Fargo chief strategist Ohsung Kwon, the market will see more signs of recovery in industrial and softer segments as companies show stronger pricing power. He adds that, at this stage, there are still no signs of a bubble.