The Big Game for Precious Metals is Just Beginning

This week, the focus remains on the shift in market regime, the relative performance of assets, and the unwinding of price distortions accumulated over decades. Observations indicate that all resistance levels used in the analysis methodology have already been breached, with Nasdaq remaining the last key barrier. The upside potential has been measured where possible, and the risk relative to the S&P 500’s performance is clearly defined by the breakout levels.

The breakout spans multiple asset classes.
In his latest weekend report, “360,” Michael Oliver identifies November as a decisive turning point for monetary metals. According to the analysis, this period marks the end of a prolonged accumulation phase and the beginning of a broad-based breakout in relative performance.

This is not just about price movement; it represents a structural shift already visible against several major stock indices.

Gold has broken through long-standing relative performance bases versus the Dow Jones, NYSE Composite, S&P 500, and, finally, the NASDAQ 100. These breakouts follow earlier reversals of downward trends and indicate a gradual but consistent shift in market leadership.

“While attention and enthusiasm are still focused on the stock market, monetary metals are already signaling that the bigger game is just beginning.”

Gold in a long-term cycle
The analysis places the current movement in gold within the context of multi-decade cycles. Historically, previous long-term bull markets—even under weaker fundamental conditions—have led to price increases of roughly eight times the lows of bear phases. Against this backdrop, the current cycle still appears relatively early and moderate in scale. MSA compares gold’s long-term performance with the expansion of fiat currencies and stock market returns. Over the past 25 years, broad stock indices have largely tracked the devaluation of money, while gold has significantly outperformed. In this context, fiat currencies are viewed as an unstable measuring unit rather than a reliable benchmark.

“Fiat currency—whether it’s the dollar, euro, yen, or pound—is a questionable measure.”

The analysis also highlights the limited participation of U.S. investors, which, according to Michael Oliver, is characteristic of the early and middle stages of long-term upward trends, rather than market peaks.

Silver and the Acceleration of the Uptrend
Silver is primarily analyzed through its relative performance versus gold. The report recalls two historical periods—late 1979 to early 1980 and 2010–2011—when strong rallies in silver were preceded by a clear breakout in the silver-to-gold ratio.

By the end of November, silver broke through a multi-year base of relative performance versus gold. According to the analysis, this signals the start of a new phase of asset rediscovery. Historical analogues show price moves ranging from more than doubling to several-fold increases over relatively short periods.

“For MSA, this marks the beginning of a large-scale upward repricing move.”

Michael also examines silver’s long-term price constraints over the past 50 years using measured-move logic. While the exact magnitude remains uncertain, the growth potential fits within patterns observed in previous market regime shifts.