Updated: Morning Outlook: Upcoming Events and What to Expect

Today’s economic calendar is relatively quiet, with no high-volatility events expected that could trigger significant market moves. The main focus is on a few secondary European and U.S. reports, as well as a series of central bank speeches.

In Europe, we are looking at French inflation data and eurozone Q3 GDP revisions, though these releases traditionally have limited market impact. ECB speeches are also not expected to provide any material new information.

In the U.S., Continuing Jobless Claims and Nonfarm Productivity are due, generally considered medium-impact data that rarely move markets unless there is a major surprise. A few Fed members will speak, but market expectations point to no new signals.

Later in the evening, CFTC positioning reports will be published. These are useful for analysis but do not directly affect market movements at the time of release.

Overall, today is expected to be low-impact, with markets likely remaining calm. The focus will be more on technical analysis and preparation for higher-impact data in the coming days.

Full calendar link:
https://calendar.varchevbrokers.com/calendar.php?lang=bg

Top 5 Things to Know Before European Markets Open

1. Asian markets fell following the U.S. decline, as uncertainty around future Fed decisions continues to weigh on sentiment. South Korea was among the hardest hit, while European and U.S. futures remained stable. Bitcoin fell slightly, and gold edged higher.
2. The British pound weakened, becoming the weakest G-10 currency, after it emerged that Finance Minister Rishi Sunak is considering abandoning plans to raise taxes, raising questions about budget funding.
3. Oil prices rose over 1% due to risks to Russian exports following Ukrainian strikes and increased U.S. sanctions. Both Brent and WTI continue to trend upward.
4. Economic activity in China cooled more than expected at the start of Q4, while former Finance Minister Lou Jiwei warned that the housing slump will deepen, increasing deflationary pressures.
5. In the U.S., former President Trump is preparing significant tariff reductions to curb high food prices, along with a series of new trade deals. The initiative follows Democratic election victories, where the cost of living was a key campaign focus.

Forex Options Expiring Today

There are a few items to watch throughout the day, highlighted in bold.

Today there are a few notable forex expirations that could partially influence market moves, though the overall impact is expected to be limited. For EUR/USD, the key expiration is at 1.1625, but since it doesn’t coincide with major technical zones, its effect is likely to be mild. The more important technical barrier remains the 100-day moving average at 1.1662, currently considered a “critical threshold” for the pair’s direction.

For USD/CAD, the expiration is at 1.4025, where the effect could be slightly more noticeable. The pair is currently trapped between hourly moving averages in the 1.4016–1.4056 range, forming a narrow trading band during the European session. Buyers are defending the 1.4000 area, which has remained stable throughout the week.

European stocks are expected to open lower on Friday, as concerns about an AI bubble and the global economy weigh on investor confidence. FTSE 100 futures are down 0.5%, CAC 40 futures 0.4%, and Swiss SMI futures 0.8%, while German DAX futures are slightly higher.

China’s economy showed a more pronounced slowdown in October, with fixed-asset investments declining, retail activity weakening, and industrial production losing momentum.

Investors are also feeling pressure from Thursday’s sharp drop on Wall Street, as concerns over AI sector valuations and upcoming Fed decisions intensified. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 2.3%, weighing on the broader market.

Comments from Federal Reserve officials have prompted a reassessment of the probability of a rate cut in December — market expectations now indicate roughly a 52% chance of a 25-basis-point reduction, down from 95% a month ago.

In Europe, attention remains on corporate earnings. Allianz reported record results for the first nine months of the year, driven by double-digit growth in operating profit in Q3, reaching €4.4 billion. The company expects annual operating profit of at least €17 billion.

In the U.S., futures were mostly unchanged following the Wall Street sell-off, while in Asia, stocks softened, following U.S. market moves and weak Chinese economic data.