Morning Оverview of Upcoming Events and What to Expect

Today’s session is mainly focused on data from the US, which could bring significant volatility to the markets, especially for the USD index, gold, and the indices.

In the morning, data from Germany is released – Q3 GDP, showing zero growth. This signals ongoing weakness in the German economy, but the market impact is limited.

In the afternoon, a series of key US indicators will follow:

• ADP Employment – an early indication of the US labor market.
• PPI and Core PPI – important inflation indicators closely watched by the Fed.
• Retail Sales & Retail Control – will show the strength of consumer spending, a key driver of the US economy.
• Housing data (S&P/CS HPI & Pending Home Sales) – providing insight into the housing market.
• Industrial Production – measuring industrial activity.
• Consumer Confidence – a key gauge of consumer sentiment.

Overall, it’s a data-heavy day that may offer clear signals about the state of inflation, consumer spending, and economic activity in the US.

Link to the full calendar here: https://calendar.varchevbrokers.com/calendar.php?lang=bg

Top 5 things to know before European markets open:

• Nvidia fell 1.5% in late trading, while Alphabet – Google’s parent company – rose 2.6% after reports that Meta is in talks to spend billions on Google’s AI chips. Asian equities edged higher, but Japanese stocks lagged, with SoftBank plunging.
• Apple has cut dozens of roles in its sales divisions to optimize how it offers products to businesses, schools, and government institutions.
• The EU’s antitrust commissioner rejected the possibility of easing the bloc’s tech regulations after US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Brussels should change its digital rules. Lutnick said the US would offer the EU a deal to lower steel and aluminum tariffs in exchange for concessions on tech regulation.
• Russia and Ukraine exchanged strikes early Tuesday – with massive air attacks over Kyiv and hits on southern regions of Russia. This comes after President Trump struck an optimistic tone regarding prospects for a ceasefire agreement.
• Donald Trump held back-to-back phone calls with the leaders of China and Japan as tensions around Taiwan threaten to derail the trade truce with Beijing.

European stocks are expected to open around flat or slightly lower on Tuesday, as regional markets shrug off Wall Street’s early-week rebound.

The UK’s FTSE is set to open slightly lower, Germany’s DAX down 0.2%, France’s CAC 40 down 0.42%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB flat, according to IG data.

The expected weak start in Europe follows gains in major US indices on Monday, supported by the strength of the AI sector and renewed hopes of a Fed rate cut. Asia-Pacific markets also traded higher overnight, lifted by Wall Street’s rise.

Traders continue to watch for any developments that could impact the upcoming Fed policy decision. Markets are pricing in over 80% probability of a quarter-point rate cut in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

The probability rose after New York Fed President John Williams said last Friday that there is room to cut rates “in the near future.” San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told the Wall Street Journal on Monday that she supports a rate cut due to concerns about the labor market.

In Europe, earnings from Compass Group, EasyJet, and Kingfisher are expected on Tuesday, while economic data include German GDP and French consumer confidence.

Investors in the UK are preparing for Wednesday’s Autumn Budget, with expectations of a wave of tax increases to be announced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves.

There are no notable FX option expiries today, with the full list shown below.

Market sentiment will therefore continue to revolve mainly around overall risk appetite, even though the major currencies have remained relatively calm throughout the week. Traders are likely already slowing activity ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, but it’s worth noting that month-end is also approaching, which could trigger certain flows toward the end of the week. In any case, the pound will be a key focus in tomorrow’s trading, as mentioned earlier. So there is still something to watch this week.