Updated: Morning Оverview of Upcoming Events and What to Epect

The day begins with an important release from Germany — at 09:00 the industrial production data for October will be published, offering insight into the state of the German manufacturing sector.

Later in the afternoon, the focus shifts to the United States. At 17:00, factory orders for September are released — a key indicator of manufacturing activity.

At 18:00, the New York Fed’s Consumer Inflation Expectations for the next year will be published — an important gauge of inflation sentiment in the country.

At 20:00, the U.S. 3-year Treasury auction will take place — an event that often influences yields and the broader bond market.

At 21:00, two key reports will be released: labor productivity and unit labor costs for the third quarter, providing a look at labor market efficiency and wage-driven inflation pressures.

Top 5 things to know before European markets open:

1. German bond futures decline after ECB’s Isabel Schnabel said she is “comfortable” with expectations for an upcoming rate hike. The euro strengthens. Japanese bond futures also edge lower, while Australian yields rise.
2. Stocks in mainland China surge sharply. The country’s exports recovered in November, and the trade surplus exceeded a record $1 trillion. Chinese leaders have set strengthening the domestic market as a priority for 2026.
3. Copper continues its climb, reaching a new all-time high. Investors bet on a prolonged rally supported by Chinese stimulus and U.S. inventory buildup amid tight global supply.
4. President Trump expressed disappointment with Ukrainian President Zelensky’s reaction to a U.S. proposal to end the war. European futures edge slightly lower.
5. Donald Trump raised antitrust concerns regarding Netflix’s planned $72 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery.

Futures point to a slight decline for the FTSE 100, while Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 are expected to open flat. Italy’s FTSE MIB is likely to open about 0.17% lower.

Markets remain confident that the Fed will cut rates at its last meeting of the year. The probability of a 25-basis-point reduction is estimated at around 87%. The decision will set the tone for other central banks — the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of England, and the ECB.

It remains unclear whether the Bank of England will begin a rate-cut cycle. The ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged. The Bank of Japan meets on December 19.

No major corporate earnings are expected in Europe today. Germany’s industrial production data will be the main focus.

Asian markets traded mixed as investors assessed China’s export figures. U.S. futures remain unchanged. On Friday, Wall Street got a boost after core PCE rose less than expected.

This is one of the last key data points before this week’s Fed meeting, which will guide market direction into year-end.

Forex options expiring today

Today the market is expected to see increased activity around several key zones of expiring currency options.

For EUR/USD, the strongest concentrations are around the 1.1800 level (nearly €2 billion), as well as at 1.1650 and 1.1575, which also represent significant volume and may influence price movement around expiry.

For USD/JPY, large volumes are clustered around 156.00 and 155.00, each with over $1.6 billion, while the 153.00 level also draws attention with more than $770 million.

In GBP/USD, important barriers lie around 1.3500 and 1.3050, which may act as a magnet for price throughout the day.

For USD/CHF, expiring positions are observed around 0.8020 and 0.7975, although with smaller volumes compared to the major pairs.

USD/CAD stands out with a large expiry at 1.3940, valued at over $1 billion, which may influence volatility.

AUD/USD has three key levels — 0.6665, 0.6595, and 0.6475, with the latter being the most significant at over AUD 860 million.

NZD/USD is focused around 0.5730, where more than 900 million NZD are expiring.

Among the crosses, EUR/GBP has options around 0.8845 and 0.8590, which may also guide price movement throughout the day.