NASDAQ: Growth, risks and realistic forecasts

Fundamentals:

As of May 12, 2025, the NASDAQ 100 is trading at a P/E ratio of 29.74 – slightly lower than last year’s 32.54, but still above historical levels, indicating some degree of caution. The P/S and P/B ratios are 5.63 and 7.70, respectively – typical for growth stocks with high premiums.

Fundamentally, things look stable – gross margin is 50.09%, operating margin is 18.99%, and return on equity (ROE) is 21.08%. Forecasts for 2025 suggest a slight cooling – P/E is expected to fall to 25.79, EV/EBITDA to 16.59, and P/S to 5.22, with an improvement in margins: operating margin could rise to 24.06%, and ROE to 23.06%. For 2026, this positive trend continues – P/E may drop to 22.67, while margins and returns continue to improve.

At the macroeconomic level, risks remain. Fed rate hikes may put downward pressure on valuations, and tariffs could increase operating costs. However, there are also positive signs – trade negotiations between the U.S. and China may bring optimism to markets. Artificial intelligence remains a key growth driver, but market euphoria carries the risk of overvaluation.

Despite support from the tech sector and solid financial performance, high valuations and global economic uncertainty, along with Fed actions, warrant close monitoring.

P/E Chart

Average Bank Target:

12-month average target stands at 23,335.8, representing a 16.3% potential upside from current levels.

Target Chart

Seasonality:

10-year average seasonality indicates 2.43% and 1.95% growth for May and June, respectively.

Seasonality Chart

Market Profile:

TPO-projection line creates a support level around 20,100.00. Today’s profile forms a B-shape, with the POC (Point of Control) in the lower half, showing acceptance of lower prices.

Market Profile Chart

NQ1 Daily:

Daily Chart

Bank Orders:

Low volume buy limit orders around the 19,526.00 zone.

Bank Orders Chart

NQ1 4h:

4-Hour Chart

Technical Outlook:

• Breakout of the short-term trendline in an upward direction
• Horizontal resistance level
• DeMarker indicator in the overbought zone
• Megaphone pattern forming a 7-wave structure on 4H chart
• Formation of a bullish Marubozu price action candle

Conclusion:

We are watching how today’s daily bar closes – a close above the resistance may justify long positioning, expecting new highs.

Alternative Scenario:

Given the horizontal resistance and the 7-wave structure on the 4-hour chart, the price may pull back and return to consolidation around 20,000.00.