NG1: Time for a reversal of the uptrend?

NG1 Daily:

Bank orders:

There are no sell bank limit orders around the current levels.

NG1 4h:

Technical picture:

• Break of the main trend line
• Sequential prints 8
• Megaphone prints 7 on 4h
• DeMarker tries to enter oversold

Fundamentals:

Contracts for the coming months are trading at a premium, which means traders expect a price increase.

The 10-year average seasonality shows a 9.72% increase for the month of April.

Commercials are reducing their net long exposure, now at levels far from the highs.

Non-commercials are increasing their exposure.

We see an increase in underground natural gas stocks in the US, meaning higher supply, which suggests a price drop.

Stocks in the EU are also increasing.

Market profile:

We observe a P-shaped profile, which shows that the price has spent more time at higher levels. We expect the price to return to the control point, the zone around 3.340.

Conclusion:

I expect the price to head for a retest of the main trend line around 3.500, after which it will continue its downward movement. The technical indicators show exhaustion of the current downward impulse, but the broken trend line and the fundamentals point to a change in the long-term trend. The first strong support the price will find is at the 3.00 levels, where we have a horizontal level from the psychological round number, which coincides with the double bottom supported by the trend line from the end of January.

Alternative: Two alternative scenarios: The price may continue the downward impulse without retesting the break, as we see DeMarker on the 4h chart trying to enter oversold. The other scenario is that the price continues to move north at the trend line test, which would suggest a resumption of the uptrend.