Technical Analysis of WTI, NG and USD/CAD: What We Watch in an Environment of Market Uncertainty

Key Highlights:

WTI crude oil (CL) reaches resistance at $72.50.

Natural gas (NG) jumps after testing key support at $3.00.

USD/CAD experiences strong volatility due to energy market movements and the US Dollar Index.

Oil prices continue to rise as concerns over supply disruptions from Russia intensify. WTI crude oil (CL) is trading around $71.80, having increased after Ukrainian drone attacks on a major Russian pipeline. The attack interrupted Kazakhstan’s oil exports, prompting Russian authorities to report a 30-40% decrease in oil exports. This reduction results in a loss of about 380,000 barrels per day, causing an increase in prices.

Meanwhile, market sentiment remains cautious as traders evaluate the potential impacts of US trade policies. President Donald Trump’s proposed 25% tariff on imported cars and increased tariffs on semiconductor chips and pharmaceutical products may heighten global trade tensions. If these policies escalate, they could limit growth in oil demand, curbing further price increases. WTI crude oil encountered resistance around $72.50 and started correcting downward. Investors are closely monitoring new policy developments that could impact global energy markets.

On the other hand, natural gas (NG) prices are rising due to increasing demand for heating amid an Arctic cold wave. US natural gas futures surged to $4.25 per MMBtu, driven by anticipated cold temperatures expected to persist in central and eastern US regions until early March. The cold wave has significantly increased gas consumption to 122.9 Bcf per day, 21% higher than last year. Additionally, concerns over production freezing have added upward momentum to the market. Energy market uncertainty is also influenced by strong volatility in the US Dollar Index, which remains uncertain due to new political changes from President Trump. This volatility has affected USD/CAD, which dropped to $1.42 in recent days.

Technical Analysis of WTI Crude Oil (CL)

Daily chart for oil – Bearish pressure
The daily chart for WTI crude oil shows that the price has reached $72.50 and continues to decline, increasing the bearish pressure. Additionally, the 50-day and 200-day SMAs are moving downward, with the price trading below them, signaling a negative trend. Furthermore, the RSI remains below the neutral level, further signaling the continuation of the downward trend.

4-hour chart for oil – Bearish pressure
The 4-hour chart shows a bearish trend in WTI crude oil, with the price having reached resistance at $72.50 and starting to decline. Meanwhile, support is at the $71 level, with a high probability of the downward trend continuing. Additionally, a break below $70 could trigger a stronger bearish move in the WTI crude oil market.

Technical Analysis of Natural Gas (NG)

Daily chart for natural gas – Rise from key level
The daily chart for natural gas shows that the price is trading within an upward channel and has recovered from support at the $3 level. The strong price increase in natural gas over the past two days has increased volatility. Support at $3 suggests that the price may continue to rise towards the $5 level.

4-hour chart for natural gas – Upward channel
The 4-hour chart for natural gas shows that the price is trading within an upward channel. Support at $3 lies within this channel, while resistance is at $4.60, defined by the upper boundary of the channel.

Technical Analysis of USD/CAD

Daily chart for USD/CAD – Price consolidation
The daily chart for USD/CAD shows that the currency pair is finding support around $1.42 and then recovering towards resistance at $1.4270, which coincides with the upper boundary of the upward channel. Additionally, the strong price volatility in USD/CAD reflects the increased fluctuations in the energy market and the uncertainty in the US Dollar. As a result, traders should remain cautious while market conditions continue to change.

4-hour chart for USD/CAD – Symmetrical expanding wedge
The 4-hour chart for USD/CAD shows that the currency pair reached the support zone of the upward expanding wedge around $1.4080 and then recovered upward. Additionally, the strong decline from the resistance of this wedge, followed by the recovery, indicates significant market uncertainty. As a result, this uncertainty suggests that market volatility may remain high in the coming days.